*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
Well this has been quite the 2 day rally. Sentiment has flipped completely bullish and many consider ATH’s a lock by the end of October… I’m still not convinced.
There are many bullish setups on individual names, I admit. However, $ES $NQ $RTY all appear to be setting up some nasty bull traps – very similar to last September/October. There are certainly bullish possibilities and the bear counts could get busted early next week… but for now, I remain on bear watch
This does not mean I am going short first thing Monday. In fact, as you know, I am holding longs in several individual stocks in my position account (shares and/or January calls)
My plan for this week is very simple: Watch for a possible reversal and act accordingly. If the reversals occur and the bearish paths do develop, I will trim longs and add to my hedges (position account). Additionally I will be looking at the bearish setups for trades in my shorter term accounts — If there is no reversal and the bull alts play out, I will trim hedges and focus on the several bullish setups that are developing.
While I think the bears may have an edge here, anything can happen. I am prepared either way. No need to get attached to either side.
$ES (View)
$ES ALT (View)
$NQ (View)
$NQ ALT (View)
$RTY (View)
- Bearish possibility for rusty… if $NQ and $ES take the bear route, this will too. $RTY may even lead, so watching for impulsive action to the downside
$ARKK (View)
- A contradiction to the bearish looks… growth looks quite impulsive. This may change quickly in the event other indices take the bear routes. Staying cautious.
Setups:
$MRNA Short (View)
- Setup: 3,4-1,2 down
- Confluence: Bearish divergence on w4 high + Corrective move up since w3 low
- Entry Trigger: 15m Reversal pattern from fib zone
- Conditions: Completion of 5th of 1 down & a corrective structure up for 2.
$NIO Long (View)
- Setup: B-1,2
- Confluence: Divergence on prior swing low
- Entry Trigger: 1H Reversal pattern from fib zone
- Conditions: Completion of w1, corrective move down for 2
$PDD Long (View)
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Falling wedge, fib alignment
- Entry Trigger: 15m Reversal from fib zone OR 15m Divergence on 5-5-C
- Conditions: Impulse completes below $92
$MSFT Long (View)
- Setup: 3,4-1,2
- Confluence: Cup & Handle Possibility
- Entry Trigger: 4H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Corrective move down. Index alignment
$DKNG (View)
Setup: 3,4-1,2 down
Confluence: Bear flag
Entry Trigger: 15m Reversal from fib zone
Conditions: Corrective move up before breaking the w3 low at $47.54
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