*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
No major surprises today, $ES and $NQ worked their way up for wave 5 while $RTY was weak. Bears have a chance here, lets see if they can do some damage. If not, bull season!
Same plan for me: If bears show up, trim longs and enter short (already hedged). If bears are hibernating, trim hedges and ride longs.
$ES (View)
- $ES closing at resistance in the GZ and right on the 1.0 fib extension. If the bears are going to reverse it, it will be in this area
$NQ (View)
- $NQ closed in the GZ and right under the trendline in this broadening formation. Watching closely to see if there is a reversal. If not, refer to the bull counts in the previous newsletter.
$RTY (View)
- So far, $RTY looks like a 1,2 down from (x). If the swing high holds, this could lead the way down for the bears.
$ARKK (View)
- Still looking bullish for now. Please note, it is very unlikely that $ARKK remains bullish *if* the bear counts for $ES $NQ $RTY play out. in that case, $ARKK would likely see $100-$103. But until there are some reversals, I will leave the bullish case for reference.
Setups:
$RTY Short (View)
- Setup: X-1,2 Down
- Confluence: Impulsive rejection from trendline. Supply at .618 +Fib confluence
- Entry Trigger: 1H reversal from fib zone (or 5m 1,2 down)
- Conditions: Completes w2 and rejects impulsively
- Notes: I am already short from 2263. I think there is a decent chance 2 is already complete and will slice through 2248 (where I will add). But I want to be prepared for a higher 2 just incase. So far the move down from the intraday high is a bit more choppy than I’d like to see to start a w3. Either way, adding short at the .618 rejection or the break of 48. Stops will adjust as invalidation shifts
$ES Short (View)
- Setup: X-1,2
- Confluence: Bearish divergence
- Trigger: 15m 1,2 down
- Conditions: Must be impulsive down, corrective up
$NFLX Long (View)
- Setup: 3,4-1,2
- Confluence: Index bull counts
- Trigger: 30m Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Indices must take bullish routes, move down must be corrective
$NET Short (View)
- Setup: W3 sell
- Confluence: Bearish divergence (daily)
- Trigger: 1D reversal pattern
- Conditions: Must show a reversal on the daily with impulsive downwards momentum.
$TDOC Long (View)
- Setup: 4-1,2
- Confluence: Divergence on IV low (daily) + Potential downtrend break
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Wave 2 completes below $133.80
$PTON Long (View)
- Setup: 1,2-1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Divergence on prior lows
- Trigger: 30m Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Corrective action down for w2, indices taking bullish path
- $NIO $MSFT $LCID setups are also still in play (see previous update) — Simply adjust fib retracements for new entry zones. Conditions and entry triggers unchanged.