*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
- The indices are (still) melting up with hardly any pullbacks. To avoid any confusion, allow me to add some context to the counts below :
First off, note that the subdivision is not extremely reliable in this situation. I have labeled my primary views however there are several possibilities that are valid. These types of moves are the toughest to pinpoint as there are extended waves within higher degree extended waves (Comparable to Russian nesting dolls). These current moves appear to be wave 3’s (maybe a 1,2-1,2 for $RTY) that are nearly complete; however, new extensions can still form within the subwaves. When the trend finally does break I expect a moderate correction/consolidation period. The break of trend may come earlier or later than expected, this is a fluid situation that needs to be monitored carefully.
My approach to the indices for this week will be based on several “If/Then” situations. As we see low time frame moves down I will be evaluating to see IF it is the start of the larger degree correction, or simply another one of the many lower degree corrective structures. For any shorts I take I will be looking to secure profits fairly quickly, until there is confirmation of a change in trend.
In short, don’t get married to any specific subdivision or ‘end spot’ for these waves. Stay nimble and take it one move at a time. When the bigger move finally does happen it should be clear. Good luck!
- $RTY may head down first. The top *might* be in already, but it’s too soon to tell. Additionally, this move has reached the 1.618 extension so I am now inclined to label it as a wave 3 rather than a 1,2-1,2.
- $ARKK appears to be impulsive to the downside on lower time frames. IF this confirms the impulsive A wave, it could be a signal for other sectors to follow. I expect growth to rally with strength once the pullback is complete
Setups:
- Setup: A,B-1,2
- Confluence: Bear flag
- Trigger: 15m Reversal from fib zone AND/OR break below 2429.50
- Conditions: Reversal must occur below 2437
- Setup: 3,4
- Confluence: Demand, Trendline, A=C fib
- Trigger: 30m Reversal from zone
- Conditions: Must bounce before 4645
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Algo divergence, Trendline, Fib zone, key pivot
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Must complete wC below 10.85
- Setup: 4-1,2
- Confluence: Gap fill, Algo curling, RSI divergence
- Trigger: 1D Reversal
- Conditions: Must Reverse above 77
- Setup: 4-1,2
- Confluence: Demand zone
- Trigger: 1D Reversal from zone
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Demand zone
- Trigger: 1D Reversal from zone
- Conditions: Must Reverse above 230
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Trendline + Bull flag
- Trigger: Entering @ open — Small size (earnings 11/8 AH)
- Conditions: Must close above 73 tomorrow to hold (shouldn’t be an issue)
- Setup: Nested 1,2s
- Confluence: Algo Divergence
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Divergence on prior low, sector confluence
- Trigger: 2h Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective
- Setup: Nested 1,2s
- Confluence: Breakout retest
- Trigger: 4H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective