*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
Well, I was wrong. The overnight bounce did not materialize as I expected, but that’s okay. We now have two very clear options… Either these are wave 2’s or we are still in the higher degree corrections (from the Nov. highs)
As of now, I expect the wave 2s to hold up. The moves down still look corrective following a set of impulsive bounces off the December 3rd lows. However, tomorrow is FOMC day. This should be a significant catalyst one way or the other. I have no intention to take on heavy risk to one side ahead of tomorrow’s statement (2pm EST).
It’s been a slow start to the week for me with only a few trades. I’ve been very patient and I will continue to do so until my edge is present. For now, we are still at at decision point. I lean bullish, but I still need to see some confirmation.
- Price bounced nicely from demand into the close. Bulls want to see this low hold and build from here overnight
- $NQ retraced to the .786 today. The depth of this retrace is of slight concern as it limits the room for error from here. It is important that the afternoon lows hold or it opens the door to a flush below 15,500
- Contrary to $NQ, the downside on $YM has been limited. This shallow yet lengthy wave 2 found support at the 21day EMA today. In the event that markets indeed find a bottom here I will be watching Dow stocks for strength.
- Despite the selling, $ARKK held up fairly well on the .786 fib. This is a good sign for growth as it had previously been the weakest link. There is still plenty of work to do for the bulls, but today was a nice start.
Setups:
- Setups: 1,2 (or A,B)
- Confluence: Bullish algo divergence
- Trigger: 15m Reversal from demand
- Conditions: Impulse must finish above 16,000. Retrace must be corrective in structure
- Setup: 1,2 (or A,B)
- Confluence: Oscillator divergence
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Must reverse from within fib zone
- Setup: 1,2
- Confluence: Sector relative strength
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Must complete the corrective move below 17.90 before reversing
Developing:
I will be watching the following for bullish intraday price structure:
