*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
- Today’s move down gives the bear count a high probability. I expect some continued upside before one more leg down
- $ES held above the 12/03 lows today but $NQ did not. I expect this move up to be corrective and set up one more leg down. If this move up turns out to be impulsive above 4670, the lows could be in… but that remains to be seen. For now I’m watching how price enters the supply zone above
- I’m looking for the A (or wave 1) to complete by the cash open setting up a dip buy tomorrow.
- $NQ broke slightly below the 12/03 low today… $ES did not. This divergence leads me to believe there is still more downside. The structure of this move up will confirm (or deny) that suspicion.
- $ARKK is holding up fairly well so far. I’m watching the .618 very closely to see if a growth resurgence is on the horizon.
- The recent breakout by bitcoin could be a hint of ‘risk on’ sentiment. This could coincide with the previously mentioned growth rebound.
Setups:
- There is an absence of A+ heading into tomorrow. These market conditions have been punishing to low quality setups, so I will remain patient.
- My main focus will be the indices. I am looking for corrective pullbacks to enter long and will look to flip short as the corrective moves to the upside complete.
- Setup: 1,2 (or A,B)
- Confluence: Relative strength
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from fib zone (or lower degree 1,2)
- Conditions: Move into zone must be corrective
- Notes: I am watching this same setup across all indices, but my primary focus will be on $YM due to its relative strength over the last few weeks. There’s a *chance* that wave 2 is complete here giving this the opportunity to run further than the rest. Regardless, I plan to trim a large portion of my position into the 1.0 fib extension
Developing:
