*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Happy New Year! I am very excited for 2022. I wish you and your families a healthy and prosperous year.
Overview:
In last night’s newsletter I mentioned that bulls needed to make a push to the upside very soon – they failed. At this point it is less likely we are in wave 4s, although it is not completely eliminated. I am putting the wave 4 thesis on the back burner for now, but a strong impulse on Monday could bring it back. Lets take a look at some possibilities:
- Looking at the weekly chart we can see a clear pattern repeating. So far this breakout pattern has resulted in continuation to the upside each time.
- On the daily, it seems that a simple backtest of the breakout could be in order
- We may see this wave 2 correct in time rather than price. A (WXY) to 4720 lines up with demand as well as a backtest of the breakout from the chart above.
- Low time frame action suggests upside before more downside. @liquidcactus has done a wonderful job pointing out the flat from the 12/27 high.
- My current suspicion is that we’ll see a flat correction (or WXY) unfold. 15,950 is an area of interest. We may not get all the way there but if we do I’d expect buyers to show up strong. The possibility of a more shallow wave 2 is also in play with 16,175 to as the key location.
- Some hope for the bulls in the short term… $NQ has a nice bull flag into demand. IF this can make a strong move out of the zone on Monday, the wave 4 count could be revived. This doesn’t fit very well with other indices, but its something I’m keeping in the back of my mind.
- A possible flat developing in $RTY as well. Could unfold as a WXY also.
- As I’ve mentioned before, crypto can be a great indicator of risk on sentiment vs risk off sentiment. I will be watching crypto very closely this weekend as a hint of what may follow in equities.
Setups:
- Please take a moment to review my trading strategies outline to better understand my setups
- Setup: Type A
- Confluence: Demand flip + Fib alignment
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Reversal must have impulsive sub-structure
- Setup: Type A
- Confluence: Bull Flag/Inverse H&S Potentially forming
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Wave 5 MUST complete before 23.48 and the move down MUST be corrective
- Setup: Type B
- Confluence: 1339 is key level and the .618
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Indices must be bullish or show signs of bottoming. (This could take a few days to trigger)
Developing Setups:
- Setups that may trigger later in the week
