*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
Today’s price action was choppy and mysterious. I took profits on my $IWM puts at the open and did not touch the indices again for the rest of today. The structure raised many questions and gave few hints. I’m writing today’s overview a bit backwards today as $RTY is more clear than $ES – Let me emphasize that several possibilities exist. I will not force trades into uncertainty. If the counts continue in their vague and mysterious ways I will stay on the sidelines and wait for a clear path.
Note – My current focus is on structure. Specific price targets will become clear once structure has confirmed.
- $RTY is the key to the downside. There’s the possibility of a 1,2-1,2 down… if the overnight bounce is corrective and can reject impulsively from ~2010 it can open a strong sell off. A break above 2025 would be generally bullish for the indices and cause me to re-evaluate the bear case.
- Today’s move down was likely an A wave. This could either be part of the larger Y wave down, or simply part of a higher X wave. Time will tell.
- The move off the highs has been corrective for $ES. Similar to $NQ this can be part of either the larger Y wave or a more complex X wave. If the 4586 high is taken out without a move lower, some bullish alts come into play.
- Following up from yesterday’s observation… $ARKK closed right at the gap level/fib zone. The reaction from this zone will be key – an impulsive bounce here would be a bullish signal for markets while continued weakness would help confirm the bull case
Setups:
- Please take a moment to review my trading strategies outline to better understand my setups
Elliott Wave Setups:
- Setup: Type C
- Confluence: Bearish algo
- Trigger: 15m Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: $ES and $NQ must align with corrective moves up
- Setup: Type A
- Confluence: Fib confluence + Supply
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib/supply zone
- Conditions: Reversal must be impulsive
- Notes: This setup has been on my radar all week – it appears nearly ready. If $ES and other indices remain unclear this setup will be my primary focus.
Day-Trade Setups:
- My stops will be managed a bit differently going forward — I will trail stops until a 1H reversal (against me) or until target is reached.
- Type 1 Setup, bullish algo — I will trail stops until a 1H Reversal
- Type 1 Setup, bullish algo — I will trail stops until a 1H Reversal
- Type 1 Setup, bearish algo — I will trail stops until a 1H Reversal
- Type 1 Setup, bullish algo — I will trail stops until a 1H reversal
- Type 2 setup, bearish algo — I will trail stops until a 1H reversal