*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
- For just the second time this year we had a bullish weekly candle. We saw a massive reversal after the January lows were taken out. This shows bullish potential but is far from confirmed. A weekly close above 4480 would be a massive win for the bulls, but I am doubtful that happens this week.
- On the daily, the reversal looks quite strong. Nonstop buying pressure Thursday/Friday. However, we saw a similar rally in late January/early February before rolling over to new lows. Bulls want to see some consolidation above 4200 before a breakout from this downtrend. There remains fresh daily demand near 3970, if bulls fail here that will be a major area of interest.
- The nasdaq formed a weekly hammer as well. Bulls want to see a weekly close above 14.7k.
- A fairly bullish reversal on the daily – but bulls still have work to do. Consolidation prior to a breakout is the best bet for the bulls
Counts:
- Still no changes.
- The correction may be complete here. All requirements are satisfied for a complete corrective structure. However, the door is still open to more complexity and further downside. The bounce so far has not given a clear signal either way, so we remain in a ‘wait and see’ environment. The difficulty of this week is that both bearish and bullish scenarios may develop in a very similar way, making it difficult to pinpoint. The lower time frame structures will be very important to deciphering this week’s puzzle.
- No changes still
- $NQ looks a tad more impulsive off of the lows. Ironically, bulls would benefit from a pullback here while bears are rooting for further extension into supply.
- At the risk of sounding like a broken record… a lot is still on the table, including possibilities not presented here. This market has not been kind to those who guess wrong. I have no intention of putting on large risk to either side until something clear develops. I will update the counts based on intraday action as usual.
- No changes. Great bounce at the confluence of fibs.
- No changes. Great bounce from a great location, but bulls need to follow through.
Setups:
- Please take a moment to review my trading strategies outline to better understand my setups
Elliott Wave Setups
- Setup: Type C
- Confluence: Demand. Falling Wedge with RSI divergence
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from demand
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective. Indices must take bull paths.
- Setup: Type C
- Confluence: Demand
- Trigger: 1H Reversal from demand
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective – Indices must take bullish paths
- Setup: 1,2-1,2
- Confluence: Channel breakout/backtest
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib zone/channel backtest
- Conditions: Move down must be corrective
$ZS Short (and/or $SOYB)
- Developing Setup: Impulsive rejection after a massive 5th wave. Looking for a corrective bounce into the 1660(ish) range and rejection from there to enter short targeting Daily demand at 1440.
Day-Trade Setups:
- Type 1 Setup on the 4H – Bearish Algo divergence – Stops will trail on the 1H
- Type 1 – Bearish algo divergence – Stops will trail on the 1H – Must open within Friday’s range
$OXY Short
- Type 2 – Stops will trail on the 1H – Must open within Friday’s range
- Lotto Setup – PMG to the upside – Must open within Friday’s range
Newsletter looking so clean. I want the bearish alt on /ES