*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
- Last week’s rally formed a massive bullish outside bar. Bulls stepped up in a big way and have control for the time being. Bulls want to see follow through this week with a close above 4530. Bears want to see a sizable retrace of last week’s rally.
- Bulls also broke the downwards trend-line with four consecutive strong sessions. Bulls need to defend this breakout this week.
- $NQ made a fresh low and ripped 1500 points from daily demand.
- The rally from the lows broke the downwards trend-line. Bulls are looking for continuation.
Nothing is confirmed yet, but last week’s rally certainly shook things up. The bulls made a nice effort, now we will see if they can follow through or if this will be just another trap.
Counts:
- No changes. Whether or not wave IV is complete is still TBD.
- My primary view remains bearish. While $NQ made a fresh low, $ES and $YM did not. This move still appears corrective and both the RSI and Stoch are showing bearish signals. I am looking for bears to show up in this fib/supply zone. If bulls can rally above 4530 (and eventually 4590) my outlook would likely shift to the bullish side. How price reacts within this zone will be key early in the week.
- A possible low time frame count for $ES (from Tuesday’s low) – I am obviously not relying on this to be correct, simply observing.
- No changes. $NQ is the best argument for the bull case.
- $NQ made a fresh low last week and rallied furiously. However, it was the only index to make this new low. It is still very possible/probable that this move is corrective and the downtrend will resume shortly. Friday’s rally brought $NQ right into a major fib/supply zone – the reaction here (or lack thereof) will be key.
- No Changes. Whether or not wave IV is complete is still TBD
- $YM supports the bearish case with this move off the February low being corrective in structure. This rally brings $YM into supply. If bulls are going to take over, they need to rip through these zones (on each of the indices)
Bull Cases
If the bulls are going to take control, here is what will need to happen….
- $AAPL closed at a key juncture. Both bear and bull baths are shown here. If bulls are to be successful, they must find continuation above $170 and a corrective pullback into new 3H demand. In either case, a trade setup is developing.
- $ARKK had a big week last week with a strong rally from weekly demand. If this impulse completes above the key pivot and a corrective pullback follows… bulls will finally have an edge.
- In addition to the requirements above, bulls need to find continuation on $ES $NQ $YM $RTY.
Setups:
- Please take a moment to review my trading strategies outline to better understand my setups
As a reversal trader, I am in a peculiar spot for the early portion of this week. Either a bearish reversal forms (and I will look to execute the short setups)… or the bulls keep up the pressure, in which case I will wait. I do not buy into extended rallies. If the bulls find continuation early in the week, long opportunities will develop on the eventual pullback. If I do take any longs early in the week, they will be intraday scalps based on low time frame action, not swing trades. The following setups are in preparation for the bearish reversal scenario – If no such reversal occurs the setups will be void and I will wait for new setups to develop.
Simply put, either the shorts develop or I wait.
- Setup: Type A
- Confluence: Stoch overbought, backtest of trendline
- Trigger: 2H Reversal from fib zone OR lower timeframe reversal structure (type C setup)
- Conditions: Indices must reverse also
- Setup: Type B
- Confluence: 4H Stoch, Gap from 4H supply
- Trigger: 30m Reversal from fib zone
- Conditions: Indices must also reverse
- Developing Setup: Looking for an impulse down from supply with a corrective retrace.
- Developing Setup: Watching for an impulse below 149 followed by a corrective retrace. 45m supply must hold.
- Developing Setup: Watching for the completion of a HTF impulse down below the key pivot low. If/when the impulse completes I will be looking for shorts on the corrective bounce. This will take days-weeks to develop.