Weekend Prep – April 2022 – Week 1

*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*

Overview:

$ES 1W

  • Last week $ES broke above the KPH (key pivot high), breaking the bearish structure. However, the weekly candle closed in quite a bearish fashion. This suggests a short term neutral/bearish outlook – but with the break of bearish structure bulls currently have the upper hand in a broader sense.

$ES 1D

  • Daily demand sits at 4405-4320. Bulls will need to defend this zone to maintain control

$NQ 1W

  • Similar to $ES, $NQ (barely) broke above the KPH. The weekly candle closed in a neutral/bearish fashion however. Bears have control in the short term, bulls have control on the higher time frame.

$NQ 1D

  • Daily demand will need to hold for the bulls

Counts:

$ES 3D

  • No changes. It is increasingly probable that wave IV is complete, but not yet confirmed.

$ES 8H

  • Bull View: If a truncated Y wave is accepted, we have a potential 1,2 forming off the lows. This requires a corrective move down to daily demand.

$ES 8H Bear Alt

  • Bear View: The possibility of the higher degree X wave is still technically possible. For this to play out, an impulsive move down would be seen next. This is lower probability, but not something we can dismiss quite yet.
  • This bear alt can be applied to $NQ and $YM as well

$ES 1H

  • In either case, we have 5 waves down off last week’s high. From here I am looking for a corrective bounce to enter short. There is 15m supply above as well as 4H supply. I will be watching these areas for short opportunities. If the bounce is NOT corrective, we may test 12H supply at 4640.

$NQ 3D

  • No changes. It is increasingly probable that wave IV is complete, but not yet confirmed.

$NQ 8H

  • Bull View – A corrective pullback into daily demand would provide a long opportunity for me.

$YM 8H

  • Both the bear and bull possibilities provided here – The structure of this next move down will be crucial in determining the next major move.

$YM 1H

  • The structure of this move down is a bit suspicious, but overall has the characteristics of an impulse. There’s a possibility that the impulse is not yet complete, with a new low still to follow. In either case, I will be watching for a corrective bounce to set up short opportunities.

$RTY 4H

  • Of all the indices, $RTY is the most bearish. This may be a hint that the other indices will take the more bearish paths. The structure off the February low is corrective and has the appearance of a bear flag. As with the other indices, $RTY formed an impulse down off last week’s high. I am looking for shorts on a corrective bounce into the 2100-20 range.

Setups:

$TSM Short

  • Setup: Type A
  • Confluence: Sold from 90m Supply
  • Trigger: 30m Reversal from fib zone
  • Conditions: Bounce must be corrective

$AMD Short

  • Setup: Type A
  • Confluence: Sold from 2H supply
  • Trigger: 1H reversal from fib zone
  • Conditions: Bounce to zone must be corrective

$DIS Short

  • Developing Setup: Looking for the completion of 5 waves down followed by a corrective bounce into the fib/supply zone

$LCID Short

  • Developing Setup: Looking for the completion of 5 waves down followed by a corrective bounce into the fib zone

$MARA Short

  • Developing Setup: Looking for the completion of 5 waves down followed by a corrective bounce into the fib zone

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