*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
In short… the indices might have found a temporary bottom, but probably not. Let’s discuss:
- Markets finally broke through support and flushed to HTF demand. The weekly candle closed with a long lower wick. This upcoming week will be key for both sides.
- Price overshot daily demand, but buyers managed to step in to close the week strong. Monthly demand is still waiting below.
- $NQ flushed to weekly demand and bounced into the end of the week. Bulls are looking for continuation from here, ideally taking out the right shoulder of the smaller H&S.
- The bounce from demand has been strong so far, but there is still room to the distal at 11.5k in the event $ES heads lower to monthly demand.
Wave Counts:
- The possibility that we are within a high degree correction remains elevated. Unless indices rally with extreme strength in the next month, we can expect the current market environment to be present for some time.
- If indices are in fact in a high degree correction, we may see a structure similar to this. Of course, the specific levels will become clear as price action develops.
- This week, I will be most interested in how price arrives and reacts to 6H supply. A corrective arrival + rejection would likely send it to monthly demand. A break above supply would be, at least in the near term, bullish.
- $NQ is in the same boat as $ES. I will be watching 6H supply closely.
- Similar to the other indices, $YM has supply overhead. The arrival and reaction to this zone will be key for near term momentum.
Setups:
- Setup: 1,2-1,2 Down
- Confluence: 4H Supply
- Trigger: Rejection from 4H supply
- Conditions: Arrival to the zone MUST be corrective, indices must align.
- Setup: Type B
- Confluence: Weekly supply, new 4H supply
- Trigger: Rejection from 4H supply
- Notes: One more 4H low is required for 4H supply, bounce to the zone must be corrective in structure.
- Developing Setup: Watching for a corrective arrival to 1D supply followed by a LTF reversal structure. Target remains $300 minimum.
- Developing Setup: Still watching $PFE for a rejection from 2H supply