*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
Good afternoon! I hope you all had a great weekend and a great start to the week. My trading week is starting a tad late this week so tonight’s newsletter will be replaced by the in depth ‘Weekend Prep’ that was missed yesterday. Have a great week!
- $ES & $NQ are both consolidating near the highs of the bullish engulfing from HTF demand. With no other context, this can be considered bullish. $NQ is having some trouble getting through Daily supply while $ES has cleared the same zone. The overall trend is still down which warrants caution; but overall I suspect we will see Buy Side Liquidity reached before making new lows on the year.
Wave Counts:
- No changes. Preparing for the sideways/bearish action to continue for some time. If this count does play out, it would apply to each of the major indices.
- The recent sideways action still supports the w4 thesis. As long as 4055 holds I will continue to look for long opportunities to 4202, 4264 and 4300. However, the recent lows at 4070 may get tested before w4 ends.
- Scenario A is the more bearish possibility. If price heads lower overnight I expect 4070 to be swept before w(4) completes. Bears need to take out 4096.
- The more bullish scenario suggests a truncated Y of (4) followed by a 1,2-1,2 formation. If 4096 can hold tonight, bulls will have the chance to take control and start the run towards the w(5) targets.
- $NQ is in the same situation as $ES. However, note that 3H demand has yet to be tested. As long as this zone holds I expect one more push higher to complete the impulsive A wave.
- In line with the bearish scenario on the S&P, a move lower overnight would likely send $NQ below 12.4k to test 3H demand. I will be looking for a bullish reversal from there.
- If 12.5k holds, bulls have a chance to take control in the short term. This would require some strength overnight.
- $YM supports the more bullish scenario at the moment. If markets are strong I will focus on $YM for long opportunities.
- $ARKK may be serve as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ here. The price action off the lows appears corrective and is into 4H supply. If $ARKK starts to sell off, I will become very cautious. Conversely, if $ARKK finds strength the bullish potential for the indices will be increased.
Setups:
- Developing Setup: There are two potential setups developing on gold. Price is coming down nicely from 8H supply as expected. We now have the structure for NEW 8H supply, although this requires two follow through candles still. On the lower timeframe there is fresh 1H supply above. If price corrects into that zone I will be watching closely for a LTF short entry.
- Developing Setup: If indices take the bullish route (scenario B), I will be watching $AAPL for longs to overhead supply. There is a LTF reversal structure developing, but indices will need to cooperate in order for this to provide an entry.
- Developing Setup: The impulse from daily demand printed a 90m zone on the way. I will be watching for a LTF reversal structure from 90m demand + the 0.786 fib.
- Developing Setup: $SE forming a reversal from 3D supply and now rejecting from new 30m supply. If markets become weaker than expected, I will turn my focus here for shorts. If indices ($ARKK specifically) find strength I will skip this trade.