*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
- Price continues to hover around monthly demand. The longer price stays in this area, the more likely it is that the lows will be swept. If/when the lows get taken out, I will be looking for weekly demand to come through and kick off a substantial relief rally.
- $NQ is also hovering just above a key location. There is still room for one more run at the lows first, but from a broader perspective I expect this area to produce a bounce.
Wave Counts:
- No changes to the general macro count. I suspect that the W-wave is not quite complete. Either way, I believe we are very close to seeing a bear market rally.
- In the shorter term, I am still looking for one more run down to 3575. The 1,2 down from 6H supply is technically still in play but this would require a miraculous rejection at the .887 fib. I find the previous alternate count much more likely now. I will be watching for a reversal from 4H or 8H supply.
- IF the bears are going to retake control into tomorrow they will have to put in some serious work overnight. For the more immediate bear case to play out, sellers will need to form an impulse down through several key lows and most importantly 2H demand. They will also need to form a new supply zone on the way down. While not impossible, the chances of this all developing are quite slim.
- The short term bull case has the advantage at the moment. There is 30m demand and 2H demand waiting below, which formed as price fought its way through supply. As long as these zones hold I expect a push to 3950 followed by overhead supply.
- $NQ is in the same situation as $ES. For the sake of simplicity I have not marked the alternate count here, but the scenarios are the same. Barring a surprise from the .887 fib, I am looking for a slight push to overhead supply before the reversal through the June low.
- $ARKK, which I often refer to as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ is worth watching here. Price is corrective off of the May low and finds itself at the 1.0 extension AND within 4H supply. If $ARKK begins to show relative weakness (or just general weakness) from here, bulls will have ample reason to be cautious.
Setups:
- In tonight/tomorrow morning’s session I will be on watch for long opportunities. I will be interested in the reaction from 30m demand and 2H demand, if it gets there. If a long setup does develop from here I will be looking at 3950 as a main target and the overhead 4H supply as a secondary target. As price approaches 4H supply I will observe extreme caution with any remaining longs.
- Watching this 2H supply + fib cluster as the indices (probably) run into overhead supply. I will be looking for a reversal structure from this area.
- $AAPL has already reached supply and is hovering just below the 1.0 A=C extension. Similar to $ARKK, I will be watching for any weakness from $AAPL to kick off the next leg down. If $AAPL closes above $148.62 without a bearish reversal structure I will move on from this setup.
- I will be watching to see if oil has any reaction at 1H supply. I am still looking for a break of the April low as a target. 1H supply will be an area of interest for me, I will be evaluating the arrival and reaction if it gets there.
- $RBLX had a nice initial reaction from 2D supply on Friday. I will be looking for a break of the KPL + new supply zone to form in order to short. This should follow $ARKK closely.
- Similar to $AMZN, $META is correcting into supply as well as a fib zone. I will be looking for a reversal from this zone in tandem with indices reversing from overhead supply.