*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
In just two days the bears have gone from ‘full control’ to ‘clinging on for dear life’. The bears failed to find any momentum for a proper reversal from supply and the bulls took control early in the session. I did not catch an entry on the morning ripper and with no bearish reversal I was left without a trade today. Today’s squeeze paired with $AMZN and $AAPL finding strong earnings moves may have some higher timeframe implications which I will discuss in the weekend prep. My focus tomorrow will be primarily on lower timeframe opportunities. After all this excitement, it would not surprise me to see a choppy Friday.
- Price squeezed through 4H supply and has found its way into 8H supply after the bell, riding the strong earnings reactions from $AAPL and $AMZN. 8H supply is not something to be taken lightly, but the bears have fumbled the strong advantage they possessed earlier in the week. Depending on how tomorrow goes, there may be some changes to the HTF structure. I will discuss this in more detail in the weekend prep. My focus tomorrow will be almost entirely on LTF scalping opportunities.
- $NQ put in another strong day, once again showing relative strength. $AAPL/$AMZN earnings added fuel after hours for a squeeze to the June high — this is a big deal. While the move off the lows is still corrective and a cool off is still likely to occur sooner rather than later, reaching the June high invalidates the ABC structure previously proposed. This adds more complexity to the $NQ count and likely to the other indices as well – I will discuss this at length this weekend.
- $ARKK, which I often refer to as the ‘canary in the coal mine’, continues to underperform the other indices. While $ES/$NQ ripped higher, $ARKK closed red and is currently negative after-hours with the $ROKU earnings flop. This divergence gives ample reason for (at the bare minimum) some caution.
- $PLTR continues to mirror $ARKK perfectly. I am still watching for a rejection from this fib zone & breakdown from this bear flag.
- As $ES reaches 8H supply, 30m demand is trying to form just below. If the next 30m candle makes a new high, demand will be in play. This zone will be important to both sides tomorrow – If bears are going to find a reversal from 8H supply they will need to make quick work of this demand zone.
- $CL_F (crude oil futures) is also on my watchlist for tomorrow. The LTF structure suggests short term downside to $93. Price is currently in 10m supply and 30m supply is waiting above. I will be looking for short entries from these zones overnight/tomorrow (ideally from 10m supply).