*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
I may be starting to sound like a broken record… but my approach to this week is the same as it has been for the past several weeks. I am extremely cautious/on watch for bearish reversals on the higher timeframes, but the lower timeframe trends remain up. I will remain focused on lower timeframe/intraday action while waiting for proper developments on the higher timeframes. This week is fairly light on news with Wednesday’s retail sales & FOMC minutes as the only significant events on the schedule. Have a great week, everyone!
- The macro outlook remains the same. The move off the year’s low is most likely a high degree X wave. If correct, this would result in a bearish reversal into the EOY. There are a couple ways this could shape up on the lower timeframes, but overall I cannot reasonably conclude that the lows are in.
- Hidden bearish divergence present on the daily chart as price approaches liquidity.
- On the higher timeframe I am still on watch for a pullback/reversal. Price is now approaching a significant liquidity level, the 0.618 fib and 12H supply. If price reverses from this area I will look for 1D flip demand as the initial target and assess from there.
- Still no trend reversal! I’ve been on watch for a bearish flip over the last couple weeks but price has yet to form a proper reversal, so there is no reason for me to be short (other than intraday) just yet… As a reminder, I cannot take a swing short until a proper trend reversal develops. The Key Pivot Low heading into this week is 4203 – bears will need to take this out to find some momentum.
- With the LTF trend still UP and a key liquidity level above, my early focus will be on the LTF demand zones that formed into the close on Friday. I will be watching these zones for long scalps towards 4303 — Above 4303 I will revert to ‘caution mode’ due to the HTF context.
- $NQ closed the week strongly and is approaching the trendline discussed in last Sunday’s newsletter. This area will be of interest for several reasons.
- Hidden bearish divergence present as price approaches the fib zone/trendline backtest.
- $NQ closed the week right at the 13,580 liquidity level and is closing in on 8H supply with bearish divergence. This whole area is a big opportunity for the bears, but as always I will be waiting for a proper reversal structure before taking any swing short position.
- $ARKK continues to appear corrective/ bear flag-ish off the May lows. Hidden bearish divergence is also present. Growth often offers hints towards the broader markets… In this regard $ARKK has been ‘quiet’ recently, but I will keep it on my radar for a significant move or relative strength.
- $TSLA remains high on my watchlist in this 2D supply zone. A reversal from this zone would have significant bearish implications on the market as a whole. It would not surprise me to see a battle at the distal ($950).
- $AAPL continues this massive run off the lows. If you’re in the ‘lows are in camp’, $AAPL is your biggest supporter. With 2 days left on the 4D candle, the distal of 4D supply is being tested – how this 4D candle closes will be extremely important. If $AAPL squeezes above $180 I can start to discuss some HTF bullish ideas across the market… but that’s a bridge to cross if/when we arrive there.
- The structure of $BTC still appears bearish off the lows and is showing bearish divergence as well. The current KPL is at 22.5k and will be key to a HTF reversal.
- On the lower time frame, price has reversed through a KPL and formed 1H supply. I will be watching this zone for short opportunities towards 23.5k (and potentially lower).