*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
For the first time in… *checks calendar*…84 years, the bears have won a key battle and are now essentially in control. With the bears breaking down through supply, this move down has developed an impulsive structure. I expect the next day or two to be fairly choppy, but by the end of the week I may finally be looking at a swing opportunity. In the meantime, I will be focused on intraday trades and preparing for the swing opportunities that may soon follow.
- Higher timeframe views unchanged. It is probable that at minimum an interim top is in place.
- Today’s continuation to the downside took price beyond the 2.0 extension, making it almost certain that we’re looking at wave 3 of an impulse down. Waves 4 and 5 will be the final confirmation. This move down has left 4H supply behind – this will be my main area of interest for swing shorts.
- It’s tough to say when exactly w(3) will end, but the 2.0-2.618 range is a very common zone to produce the w(4) bounce. There is a 1H supply zone on $ES where I will look for potential shorts for w(5). Wave (4) will likely be choppy, so I exercise caution and patience trading the range.
- Both $ES and $NQ have 10m supply overhead, just before the $ES 1H SZ. I will be watching these zones for reversals as well; and if I end up in a long-scalp I will use the zones as a target.
- $ARKK continued to melt down today and has nearly formed daily supply (requires tomorrow’s candle to break today’s low). In a similar fashion to $ES/$NQ, I am looking for a bit more downside before a retrace to supply (where I will be on maximum alert for swing short opportunities).
- The breakaway gap for $AAPL is a great sign for bears. To keep control, sellers need to maintain pressure on market leaders. Any relative strength from $AAPL over the next few days would be a red flag for bears.
- $CL found a sharp move down from the fib zone overnight put in a huge rally during the RTH session to undo the whole sell off. From here, I’ll be looking for a test of the distal of 4H supply around 92. If price forms a proper reversal there I will once again look to short towards 85 – if price doesn’t form a proper reversal there, I’ll simply move on from this setup.