*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
The bulls showed up today to spark what is likely the wave 4 bounce. While it was a nice day for bulls, I expect the upside to be fairly limited in the short term. The trend is still down, there is still supply overhead and the EWT context suggests one more low to complete this impulse down from the August highs. GDP and unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow before the open – be prepared for some volatility to start the day.
- No changes. Wave 4 appears to be in progress. $ES has daily supply above and weekly demand below.
- Ending diagonals formed overnight to complete waves (5) of 3 on $ES and $NQ. It seems the wave 4s are in progress with today’s rally. I am looking for the indices to retrace towards the 0.382 fibs before continuing lower… 3900/12k will need to hold for this scenario to play out
- Today’s rally off the lows was impulsive and printed demand on the way up. This move was likely the (A) wave of wave 4. Wave 4s are typically slow and choppy, so a messy/sideways move down to demand overnight would fit well as the (B) wave. I will be looking for long setups from demand targeting the overhead supply.
- Price rejected 1H supply into the close, forming a reversal structure with 1m supply – I will be watching for a scalp opportunity from this zone to begin the globex session.
- $ARKK found some strength today but remains bearish as long as price is below $41.87. I will be watching the reaction to the 0.382-0.50 fib zone.
- Gold put in a strong impulse today and formed 1H demand on the way. Recall from the weekend prep, $GC_F is coming from a significant macro location. I will be closely monitoring the development of this move and looking for long setups from demand.
- The euro also found a strong move off the lows today. If price corrects into the fresh demand below, I will be looking for longs up to 8H supply.