*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Hello everyone, happy Sunday! I hope you’ve all had (and continue to have) a great weekend. Last week was an important week, especially with the way it closed. Bears managed to escape a precarious situation and regain full control into the weekend. The upcoming week is once again stuffed with speeches and announcements, including FOMC minutes. Check out the full schedule here and make sure to watch your risk around these events! With that said, let’s get into the charts…
- The view from 10,000ft is certainly not bullish. The trend remains down and HTF demand has been taken out. I have no desire to catch a knife at the moment – the bears are in charge until proven otherwise.
- The macro count remains unchanged. I expect the (A) wave to conclude shortly and be followed by a corrective (B) wave into overhead supply. I expect this (B) wave to be accompanied by a flood of “the bottom is in” calls and bragging from the bulls, setting up a soul crushing and panic fueled final leg down that no one will want to buy.
- The expanded flat scenario appeared in jeopardy last week, but the bears did their job at the last minute and slammed price down from supply. I’ve gone back and forth over whether these flats were a lower or higher degree w4… For now, I must give the benefit of the doubt to the higher degree wave 4. I’ll spare you the boring technical explanation, but essentially proportions favor the higher degree 4 being complete. I’ve attached the alternate lower degree w(4) scenario as well, and as you can see it doesn’t really change anything – it just delays the end of this move down slightly. For now, I’m simply looking for a run through the lows, from there we’ll see how price reacts.
- On Thursday I discussed how the bears needed a strong and aggressive follow through day… and they certainly came through. Price formed a 1,2-1,2 overnight setting up a strong sell off through demand during the cash session. The bears exceeded all expectations and now look poised to continue lower in impulsive fashion. There is some 2H demand present at these levels, but I don’t expect much of a fight before it gets taken out.
- On the lower timeframes I have my eye on the 30m supply zones that are looming above.
- Chart untouched, the bears may finally find their way to the May lows this week.
- $GOOG and $TSLA are tracking nicely and will remain high on my watchlist for swing opportunities. I took a swing short position in $GOOG early Friday morning and $TSLA will be on close watch down the road once the B wave concludes.
- Both the Euro and Pound rejected beautifully from supply last week and printed new 90m supply on the way. We may or may not see a bounce to retest this new supply, but either way I am looking for a run to the lows from both.
- Gold failed to find a rally from the demand zone discussed last week, but the overall structure remains bullish. I am watching 1H demand for a reversal towards 1743. If price fails at this demand zone I will no longer be interested in this setup.