*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Reminder: I will be away on Monday and there will not be a newsletter posted Monday night
This week was another tricky one for the counts. I am not here to put on some facade or pretend I always get it right… If you’ve been around for a while, you’ve seen many times where I am deadly accurate and other times where I get it wrong. My main goal tonight is not to ‘predict’ what’s next. My goal is to lay out all the scenarios & evidence, assign probabilities to these scenarios and to prepare for the upcoming week with an “if ____ then _____” approach. Let’s dive in…
- The macro situation remains bearish. This weeks candles were quite ominous and the HTF trend remains down. The macro count still suggests a move down to monthly demand.
- The high timeframe (HTF) counts have not changed. I still believe the move off the October lows is a (B) wave and we are about to see wave (C) of Y towards Monthly Demand. The debate at the moment, which I will discuss more in a moment, is this – “is wave (B) done?”. I lean towards the blue path as the bears have earned the benefit of the doubt. As you can see, regardless of which path is taken both have the same end result.
- My ‘main’ counts operate under the thesis that wave (B) is complete. While this requires some odd truncation on $NQ, I must give the bears the benefit of the doubt as they have broken the LTF uptrend and taken out demand below. In order to maintain this advantage the bears will need to see strong and impulsive selling pressure throughout the next week or two.
- An alternate to keep in mind… If the bulls find a strong bounce from the golden zone on $ES and from just below the lows on $NQ, we could still see an expansion of this complex (B) wave up into 4D supply. Bulls will have to ‘prove themselves’ with a strong reversal from the key areas for this alternate to play out.
- One of the most convincing argument for the more directly bearish outlook is $AAPL. Apple put in a strong impulse down through the wave (A) low after reversing just shy of the 0.618 fib. This aligns near perfectly with the bear counts on the indices. Considering $AAPL is a major market mover, if this structure plays out I must assume the indices will follow suit.
- In the shorter term, I am looking for w(2) to end before 3855/12,250. There is a chance (2) is already complete as well. A break above 15m supply would be a ‘red flag’ for the bears.
- $PLTR put in w5 down this morning. I will be watching for short opportunities on the corrective w(2).
- Gold is working on a reversal structure from a key macro location. It is too soon to conclude a macro bottom is in place, but it’s a great start for the bulls. I will be watching for a corrective retrace towards 20m demand this week.
- $GU rallied from 30m demand and printed a 20m zone on the way up. This 20m zone will be an area of interest – proper reaction from here would have me long targeting the swing high and beyond.
1 thought on “Weekend Prep 11/4”
Wow this is very clean and love the setups