*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good evening everyone! I spent the entirety of last week with the bulk of my focus on the LOW timeframes (LTFs) and will start this week the same way. As you know I am looking for a significant bearish reversal in the near future, but until there is a proper reversal and confirmation I must stay patient. Until the swing setup develops (assuming it does), I will continue to trade intraday action and remain nimble. It will be a short week with markets closed on Thursday (Thanksgiving), but this doesn’t necessarily preclude an action packed week… You may recall, futures dropped significantly last year on Thanksgiving night/Friday morning. Obviously last year’s action has no real impact on the current situation; but with the way things are developing, the idea of a repeat is certainly in the back of my mind.
- A pair of weekly dojis at key fibs… The macro trend remains down. This week’s candle will be an important one to the broader context.
- The HTF count remains the same. I am looking for a significant reversal within the next ~150pts $ES. I am looking for one more significant leg down in this macro corrective move from ATH’s.
- In the mid-term I still suspect we see one more high before completing the (B) wave. If price breaks below 3865 first, this thesis is likely incorrect. $ES is already in 4D supply, one more high would take $NQ to the same zone.
- Price rallied nicely from 3m demand on Thursday night but failed to keep the momentum through the cash session. This has me a bit cautious for another test of demand before the rally back to the local highs. If price can fight its way above Friday’s high we could see the direct path up. Between Thursday’s low and Friday’s high is a LOW PROBABILITY area – I will not be in a hurry to trade within this range. There are times when things are crystal clear and there are times when the paths are murky… This is an example of the latter and I have no plans to get involved until something HIGH PROBABILITY develops.
- From a swing trader’s perspective, $TSLA and $MSFT take the top spots on my watchlist. I will be watching for reversals in tandem with the indices.
- Oil continued south on Friday much to my delight. I expect this to continue through $75 over the coming weeks. I will be keeping an eye on this 20m zone for a reversal structure and additional short opportunities.
- Still no reversal from the fib zone. I will continue to monitor gold through this 15m demand zone, but if there is no reversal by 1732 I will move on from this setup. Remember, no reversal = no trade for me.
- I am still monitoring $DXY, the Euro and the Pound for hints regarding US indices. The correlation is not perfect, but a reversal in these currencies would support a reversal from $ES and $NQ.