*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Yesterday’s chop bled into today’s session a bit, but it was not the worst action we’ve seen lately. Markets appear to be waiting on tomorrow’s PPI data (8:30am EST) before making the next move. As was the case yesterday, not much has changed, but there is still plenty to discuss…
Hight timeframe context…
- No changes. Regardless of what happens in the next few days, I expect price to be much lower 3 months from now.
What happened today?
- Price crept higher overnight and found a decent pop at the open today. From there, things moved mostly sideways as neither side could take control. The morning spike took price above 1H supply, but buyers failed to keep any momentum. Bulls looked better today than they did yesterday, but are still yet to produce a clear reversal.
What does this change?
- No changes to the midterm outlook. This action still appears corrective since the Nov15 highs with the overall wave-(B) structure still incomplete. While there may be a small move down in the short term, I still cannot conclude that a major top is in place.
In the short term…
- The choppy/sideways bounce over the past two days is corrective in structure. We are yet to see the bullish reversal that I’ve discussed in the mid-term outlook. Given the corrective structure of this recent move up I find it likely that price will sweep the local lows before making the true reversal. Bulls would need to find momentum above 4000 to take over in a more direct fashion.
Swings…
- $MSFT found a bounce today, supporting the idea of a push to 4H supply for a final high along with the indices. A break below $237 would change my mind, but for now I will hold off on shorts.
$PLTR on the other hand continues to consolidate near the lows. This consolidation may continue as the indices complete their (B)-waves, but as long as the local high holds I am looking for a trip into the $5 range.
Forex & Crypto…
- Continuing from yesterday’s update… The Euro has printed 1H demand and appears ready to run back to the local highs. I would prefer a corrective pullback to 1H demand first to set up a long opportunity.
- Gold rejected from the distal of 15m supply at the 0.618 fib today. A break below the pivot low at 1796 would have me looking for shorts. Above today’s high I am no longer interested.