*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good evening! Sellers maintained control today as the indices continued to grind lower. Not much has changed since last night’s newsletter, but today’s action provided some great opportunities worth studying. Let’s dive into the charts…
HTF Context
- The HTF situation remains bearish, no changes here.
**Also worth noting, a red close on $ES tomorrow would print a bearish engulfing weekly bar
Mid Term Outlook
- No changes to the mid term outlook either. At the moment it still appears we are beginning the next leg down. My primary focus will revolve around this thesis until the 2022 lows are broken, so long as yesterday’s high holds.
As most of you know, the vast majority of my entries occur on lower timeframes… However keeping the broader context in mind, I will aim to hold short runners for higher timeframe targets in accordance with the mid/high timeframe counts.
What Happened Today?
- $NQ was my primary focus last night/today as it continued to trend lower overnight, printing a 1H supply zone and later a 30m zone. Price rallied into 30m supply at the open and quickly formed a reversal structure to provide a quality short opportunity. As the session continued the action became more condensed and eventually formed a LTF bullish trend reversal which gave a nice scalp back to the morning high.
I highly recommend studying today’s action, with specific focus on TREND as well as the reversal structure at the open. Make sure you’ve watched my “How I Trade” Video and read Tuesday’s post on trend analysis.
LTF Counts
- The LTF counts are still developing, so these ideas are only a rough estimate at the moment and should be taken with a grain of salt… For now I suspect the indices are working on the 5th wave down from yesterday’s high. The dow ($YM) is showing the ‘cleanest’ example of this idea. A sweep of the low overnight followed by a bounce tomorrow morning could set up a wave 2 retrace towards the overhead supply zones.
When it comes to the lower timeframes I choose to focus primarily on trend, S/D and market structure, with EWT providing the broader context… These LTF counts aren’t a major part of my plan for tomorrow other than to tell me “If price sweeps the lows overnight and finds a bullish reversal in the morning, consider long scalps towards supply for w2″
Gameplan:
PRIMARY FOCUS — Short Opportunities
- The overall trend/wave context is bearish, so my main focus is still on short opportunities. As price retraces to supply and/or prints new zones I will continue to watch for short opportunities on proper reversals, holding runners for broader targets in line with the mid/high timeframe counts.
SECONDARY FOCUS — Long Scalps to Supply
- After this strong sell off it would be reasonable to see a retrace at some point. I have zero desire to try to front run the retrace, but if there is a trend reversal on the micro timeframes I will look for scalp opportunities towards overhead supply. I will be much more conservative with these trades in both targets and management.