*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good afternoon! In typical FOMC-week fashion today’s session was dominated by choppy action, with the exception of the first hour. It seems the X-wave pullback is in progress as we approach Wednesday’s fed rate decision. Not much has changed since yesterday’s weekend prep, my focus will remain exclusively on low timeframe opportunities until otherwise specified.
HTF Context:
- No changes to the HTF context.
Mid-Term Outlook:
- Today’s action was likely the beginning of the X-wave pullback discussed in the Weekend Prep. I am still looking for this pullback to take price down to at least the 45m demand zone on $ES, possibly as low as 3900. As we saw today, this wave will be corrective and vulnerable to chop. I don’t have high hopes for much ‘clean’ price action this week. My focus remains on the lower timeframes.
What Happened Today?
- Price sold lower overnight breaking the LTF uptrend and printing new supply on the way down. Price rallied into supply at the open and quickly reversed lower. $NQ made a swift trip from 30m supply to 30m demand to ‘balance the S/D equation’. After the morning sell off price action devolved into chop and provided few additional opportunities.
LTF Outlook + Game Plan:
- My core thesis is that price will work its way down to the 45m/1h demand zones in a corrective manner… Exactly how it gets there is a bit unclear. Following the morning reversal there was no significant new supply printed, which leaves the door open for a move back into the zones above.
My best guess at the moment is that the indices will sweep Thursday’s lows and fight back up to supply before making the move down to demand. While this is my preferred path, it’s far from an idea I can be rigid in. As price action continues to develop I will remain nimble, constantly evaluating trend, structure & new zones.
Current market conditions heavily favor scalpers & day traders, specifically futures traders, compared to options/swing traders. If these conditions don’t fit your edge, there’s nothing wrong with sitting out – especially on an FOMC week.