Members’ Newsletter 2/8

*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*

Good afternoon! Yesterday’s volatility carried over into today’s session providing some exciting price action despite closing as an inside day. Before diving into the charts, remember that unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow at 8:30am EST serving as a catalyst for the morning session. Make sure to manage risk properly around this event.

HTF Context:

$ES 2D

$NQ 2D

• No changes…

What Happened Today?

$NQ 15m

• Price arrived at 10m demand (the ‘Key Zone’ from yesterday’s newsletter) early in the session following some choppy overnight action. Originally I was expecting 10m demand to provide a reversal for upside continuation, but no such reversal developed. The lack of a reversal prevented me from getting long and as soon as 10m demand was taken out my focus shifted towards short opportunities. $NQ soon retraced into new 15m supply, rejected and chopped lower into the close.
  
  Today’s action was another great example of why I trade the way that I do and why I advocate so strongly for the use of a thesis + confirmation system… By waiting for a proper reversal I was able to avoid a failed long at 10m demand and quickly turn my attention towards short scalp opportunities.

Does Today’s Action Change Anything?

$ES 1H

$NQ 1H

• All that changed today was my low timeframe outlook. The key 10m demand zones failed today which means a sweep of yesterday’s low is likely, but when zooming out we can see that nothing significant has changed. The structure is still clearly corrective off the highs, the mid timeframe trend remains up and the fib zones continues to hold… as long as this remains true I have no reason to call “top” just yet.

Mid Term Outlook:

$ES 12H

$NQ 12H

• For the moment I maintain the expectation of another high within this macro (b)-wave.

Short Term Outlook & Game Plan:

$ES 10m

$NQ 10m

• Heading into tomorrow I am looking for a sweep of yesterday’s low followed by (yet another) reversal. I will only take longs if a proper reversal develops. If price fails to find a reversal and instead accelerates through the fib zones I will turn my focus to short scalp opportunities and re-evaluate the short/mid term wave outlook.

Gold & The Euro:

$GC_F 1H

$EURUSD 1H

• Both gold and the Euro are still on my radar as they come from 1H supply. As long as gold is below today’s high there is room to 8H demand below. For the Euro, once below daily demand there is room to the 2023 low. I will be monitoring both of these products for opportunities tonight/tomorrow.