*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Aaaannnnd right back into the range… *sigh*. Price turned lower overnight, taking out yesterday’s lows by the open. I had high hopes that the range would finally break, but the markets had other ideas. For the moment the situation is back to what we’ve seen all week, a waiting game. Let’s dive in.
HTF Context:
- No changes
What Happened Today?
- The indices started to turn lower overnight with PPI catalyzing the strong flush through 1H demand. By the open, yesterday’s lows had been taken out and my bullish hopes crushed; the remaining portion of my long was stopped at breakeven. $ES arrived to 2H demand at the 930EST open and both indices bounced towards key 30m supply zones. These supply zones were key in the sense that bulls would re-take control above, but price remained in a ‘junk zone’ below. The battle at these zones lasted most of the day with price chopping sideways, but eventually the bears won the battle and sold to the lows into the close. I did not catch the move down and ended the day with zero trades. Markets are still within an ugly 2 week range, this is not an environment that I am eager to force trades into. I will continue to be patient and wait clear, high probability setups.
Mid Term Outlook:
- The general outlook has not changed. Yesterday it appeared that the direct path was going to play out, but today’s action brought me back into a more neutral view. Whether it’s the direct move or a test of demand first, I still expect the February highs to break before finishing this HTF wave-(b).
Low Timeframe Outlook & Game Plan:
- Both indices rejected key 30m supply zones into the close to keep things stuck in a junk/scalp range. While not the most ideal trading range, this does provide a fairly simple situation going forwards…
– If price can break above this afternoon’s highs, bulls would have control. From here I would once again be looking for longs to the highs
– If price breaks below 2H demand on $ES, bears would have control and I would be looking for shorts to the lower demand zones. (Note, I have added 45m demand as an additional area of interest on $NQ).
– As long as price is in the middle, I will stay patient and cautious.