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Good afternoon! The indices slipped slightly lower than expected last night but bulls eventually showed up with a huge rally during the back half of today’s session. Many late bears were punished today, if markets open higher tomorrow morning I suspect late bulls will be trapped in a similar fashion.
Macro Context:
- I maintain my macro bearish targets. There remains some debate over whether or not wave-(b) is complete.
Mid Term Outlook:
- All 3 scenarios discussed in Monday’s Newsletter are still technically valid. Bears are in a position to confirm the orange (most bearish) path with an impulsive move down, although this must occur before reaching the invalidation level above. Please review Monday’s Newsletter for a detailed outline of each scenario.
- The (B) waves pushed lower than expected, but ultimately bulls produced the rally needed to keep the flats in play. The general outlook remains the same, however it is more likely these flats are running flats rather than expanded flats. In either case, if sellers can produce an impulsive move back through the lows, the bear scenario would be in control with a complete impulse off the February highs.
- IF the impulse down completes, this would become the primary HTF count
Short Term Outlook:
- The indices came just shy of the fib zones into today’s close. While the highs could be in already, I suspect price will push at least a little higher into the zones. Either way, I closed my intraday longs into the close and will be on watch for a reversal structure tomorrow.