*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Hello everyone! In what seems all too familiar, it was another dull session complete with significant divergence among the indices. $ES remains pinned on 4130, still. Putting it nicely, these market conditions are not ideal. Patience and discipline remain top priorities while navigating this action. Today’s update will once again build on yesterday’s discussion – Please make sure you are up to date before continuing.
HTF Context:
Mid Term Outlook:
- No changes here. The macro count remains the same regardless of whether the indices sweep into demand again or not. I am still leaning towards the bear case in the mid term.
What Happened Today?
- The divergence between $NQ and $ES was substantial today (and don’t even get me started on $RTY). $NQ continued its slow grind higher as $ES chopped lower. Both found some downside into the close.
- $NQ appears to have completed a WXY from Friday’s low, $ES may have finished a triangle.
- These low timeframe structures alone do not tell the whole story, but they do add to my bearish suspicion. So far, a total of 0% of this week’s action has indicated strong and sustained buying pressure.
Short Term Outlook:
- Heading into tomorrow, I must continue to lean bearish until the bulls prove otherwise. If $ES can fight below (and stay below) 4112, the bears will have full control towards demand at 4050. For $NQ, today’s low as well as 13,350 will serve as trend pivots. While I wait for these pivots, I will remain in ‘scalp mode’.
- I could make a case for today’s highs holding, but I am not in the business of trying to nail exact tops/bottoms. Whether from current price or a tad higher in the fib zones, I am on watch for sellers to show up and provide opportunities to the targets below.
- To flip bullish, $ES would have to fight through 4185 and $NQ would need to accelerate through the fib zone.