*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
To best understand this newsletter, please read this article on How I Trade
Hello everyone! I hope you are all enjoying your weekend so far. The week started slow as the w4 triangles tightened into CPI, but the second half of the week provided some exciting volatility as the indices soared higher in what may have been a 5th wave finale. For the past month or so, all major indices have been in macro ‘areas of interest’ within HTF supply. Now, the mid term structure suggests a reversal may be just around the corner. The next few weeks will play a big role in whether or not we get a major pivot…
Macro Context:
- There are no changes to the macro counts. All four indices remain in major supply with valid corrective wave structures. Until supply is taken out and the structures are broken, I must remain on watch for a significant reversal from these macro areas of interest.
Mid Term Outlook:
- The rally over the past few sessions took $ES and $NQ up into the w5 fib targets* after breaking out from the w4 triangles. The wave structure hints at a looming reversal, there is bearish RSI divergence present on the daily timeframe to add some confluence and the macro context remains bearish… Simply put, there are several factors that suggest the bears have a real chance to produce a reversal here… I am not loading long-term shorts yet nor am I trying to catch ‘the top’, but this spot is a major area of interest to me. I will be watching closely to see if a reversal can develop to break the uptrend.
- I have raised the key pivots (KPLs) to 4410 and 15,060 following this new high. Below these levels bears would have a meaningful trend break, although they will still need to fight through the 1D demand below. If/when sellers complete both tasks, I will look for major swing short opportunities.
–
*These fibs are the 1.0-1.618 extensions when comparing w5 to w1
Short Term Outlook:
- In the shorter term, the 4H zones remain key to determining whether or not w5 is complete. If the zones hold, we could see the 5th wave extend further, likely as a diagonal. If the zones fail (which I suspect will be the case), it is likely that the 5th waves are complete and the door is open to a broader reversal.
- I am looking for price to find its way to the 4H zones mentioned above, but getting there may get a bit tricky. There is some lower timeframe demand in the way preventing this from being a ‘clear shot’ to the 4H zones. I expect price to get there regardless, but it may be choppy/messy on the way. I will have this in mind to start the week and proceed with some extra caution.
- I will enter the week in ‘scalp or sit’ mode until 4H demand is reached (or there is a significant change in structure). The reaction at 4H will determine how I proceed as outlined previously.
Individual Stocks:
- $AMD found a strong rejection from the daily supply discussed in Thursday’s newsletter. I will be looking to initiate shorts in the 20m zone above and add below 113 with 4D demand @ 97.50 as my target.
- Things got a bit volatile yesterday with earnings. Price gapped up above supply but immediately sold off at the open, ending the day with a massive bearish engulfing bar. Additionally, 20m supply printed on the way down. I will be looking to add to my short position if this 20m zone is reached.
Thanks for reading! If you are a visitor and interested in daily updates & access to the private discord community, click here to start a free trial