This newsletter represents my own personal thoughts and actions/intended actions, subject to change without notice. I am not a licensed financial professional. Do not mis-interpret my observations, opinions or actions as recommendations. Be responsible and always exercise proper risk management in your trading.
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Recap:
Good morning!!
Yesterday’s session began with a sweep of the overnight lows followed by a bounce, failed downwards expansion. This created temporarily bullish context on the lower timeframes only, as the immediate bear control paused, allowing for a move back through the overnight range (with this setup forming within!).
After the morning bounce, things slowed down and the indices have been battling supply since… Now the question is, was this a bottom, or just a relief bounce before resuming lower?
Context:
On the 1D/1W, $ES and $NQ have failed expansion context. Buyers were NOT willing to chase above the prior high, the 1D bull trend has broken and there is a lack of major demand below… This is bearish evidence, bearish context, until proven otherwise by the bulls with new evidence.
$SOXX gapped down through demand yesterday before finding an intraday bounce… Control is down here, with a sweep of the July low on the table.
Overall, the 1D context at the moment is bearish. Could that change? Yes, but it would require new evidence (trend shifts, clearing supply, forming demand, etc) from the bulls.
On the 4H, $NQ remains below the prior low, with supply intact. Bears still have the advantage on this timeframe.
$ES is back above the prior low, but still fighting some demand.
– If sellers defend these areas on $ES/$NQ –> 4H control stays down. This would maintain timeframe alignment and likely lead to the targets below.
– If bulls fight through these areas –> 4H bear control would be broken, creating a CONFLICT with the higher degree. This would shift things into neutral, a battle for control. (We’ll discuss this battle in more detail, if it comes into play).
Today’s Focus:
My focus is on $NQ again today, with yesterday’s high being key.
– Below yesterday’s high, bears have the advantage (supply holding, no bull expansion)… My focus in this case will be on downside back through yesterday’s bounce.
– Above yesterday’s high, bulls would take intraday control (through supply, 30m bull expansion)… In this case the door would be open to intraday long opportunities, and a battle for mid/high timeframe control would begin.
As always, my participation, regardless of direction will require clean internal setups in line with the intraday control.