*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Overview:
- Macro count tracking well so far as price bounces from monthly demand. My primary view remains unchanged, I am looking for a bear market rally towards 4350+.
- While my primary view remains bullish, I will exercise a bit of caution in this area. Price has rallied into 6H supply and will need to get through this zone to open the door to more upside. I expect the bulls to win here, but I will be ready to flip if price action proves otherwise.
- I am looking for bulls to use this 1H demand zone to clear the overhead supply. It would be best for this supply to be taken out as quickly as possible.
- If the bears are going to win this battle, here’s how I see it unfolding… A deep and impulsive rejection from supply followed by a corrective retrace would lead me to flip short.
- $NQ continues to climb off the fib zone. Notice, the nasdaq has already cleared the 6H supply zone that $ES is currently battling with. This helps bolster the bullish projection.
- $YM is nearly identical to $ES. This battle at 6H supply will be key.
- To further add to this ‘make or break’ battle, the $VIX is consolidating on the daily. Watching for a break of this range.
- As with the other indices $ARKK is also heading into a key battle. A sharp rejection on this second test of supply would likely lead to a break of the May low. A break above this zone would help confirm the bear market rally is in progress.
- Last but not least, I am still keeping an eye on global markets for hints & confluence. Looking for continuation from the 0.786.
Setups:
- Reversal structure off the lows with strong divergence. If we see a corrective pullback I will be looking for long opportunities as long as the indices confirm the bullish projection first.
- Oil broke down from its bearish channel and is currently back-testing the breakdown – I will be watching for more short opportunities this week. At the moment, there is a bear flag forming into 2H supply with bearish divergence… this zone will be of major interest to me if/when price gets there.
- In the overnight session I will be watching for a bullish reaction from 1H demand to get long. There will be some degree of caution involved in this trade due to 6H supply overhead.
- As a backup bearish setup, I’m watching this daily supply zone on $FSLR. If markets end up taking the bearish route, I will shift my focus to this short opportunity.