*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good afternoon everyone! The morning started off with some trickery, but a lot of information was provided by today’s action. Generally speaking, the situation is the same as it was on Tuesday night. Keep in mind that tomorrow is the last day of the month AND quarter; and that PCE data will be released at 8:30am EST… be prepared for a potentially wild Friday.
- While there are some minor changes to the lower timeframes, the HTF view is unchanged.
- Yesterdays impulse turned out to be the end (c-wave) of an expanded flat rather than the start (a-wave) of the w4 bounce. This was a bit tricky, but essentially we’re back to the situation from Tuesday night… watching for wave (5) of 3 to end before the wave 4 bounce into overhead supply.
- I was fooled by the flat. It never feels good to be wrong, but thankfully that was the extent of my pain. Plus, it gives me a great opportunity to emphasize why using EWT in tandem with Supply/Demand is so powerful and why a confirmation style entry system is so crucial… This morning I was watching for a reversal from 30m demand back up towards overhead supply. As we all saw, 30m demand got sliced almost immediately. Since there was no proper reaction from demand, it was quite easy for me to sit on my hands and avoid getting long (which would have been a loss). Additionally, demand getting taken out was an early warning that something was wrong with the count.
- Compare this to if we ONLY considered Elliott Wave… If I was trading solely based off Elliott Wave, I would probably have longed the open and gotten stopped at or near yesterday’s low. Utilizing supply and demand refines the area of interest and provides a more narrow zone to watch – and the confirmation style entry system can help avoid losses entirely in these situations.
- $NQ flushed through yesterday’s low (and the June low, finally)… $ES did not quite reach the same low, yet. I expect to see at least one more push lower to get $ES through 3613; after that the w4 bounce is free to begin.
- $ARKK dropped sharply today and appears to be working on the 5th wave down from the September high. The May lows are still my target.
- Of all big tech stocks, $AMZN appears most aligned with the indices. I will be looking for short opportunities when w(4) completes.
- The euro rallied overnight from 15m demand and is now approaching 8H supply. This zone will be a ‘make or break’ zone and one that I am monitoring closely.