*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good afternoon! It was another strong day for markets as buyers refused to take their foot off the gas. This leaves us at a binary juncture heading into tomorrow… In simple terms, either price will reverse from here or my lower timeframe counts are incorrect and require adjustment. Reminder: I do not simply trade what I ‘think’ will happen, I build a thesis and wait for confirmation… With that said, let’s get into the charts:
- No changes to the HTF view.
- Price pushed higher overnight and continued throughout the day, supporting the expanded flat (blue path) from yesterday’s update. Both $ES and $NQ closed in relatively strong supply – 1D for $ES and 4H for $NQ. If these expanded flat (4)s are going to play out, the indices need to reject these supply zones overnight and find downside continuation throughout tomorrow. If price chops sideways or continues higher through supply tomorrow, then the count is likely wrong and I will need to re-evaluate.
- So far there has been no reversal and thus no reason for me to be short just yet. I will be watching for the reversal tomorrow, but I must be aware of the demand that formed below. Any short opportunities/positions will require extra caution around these new demand zones. While I don’t have a high quality short setup quite yet, I do have enough information stay out of longs while price is in supply. I expect price to leave supply tomorrow one way or the other, (reject from supply or break through it), once that happens we will have a solid idea of whether the expanded flats will play out.
- $ARKK shot higher today as it remains in alignment with the indices. This may have completed an expanded flat (4), tomorrow will be key.
- Gold has my attention on nearly every timeframe at the moment. The macro count shows a complete (or nearly complete) HTF correction. Price has rallied from this HTF area of interest over the last couple of weeks and printed a fresh 12H demand zone – I will be looking for swing longs if/when this 12H zone is revisited. In the shorter term, I will be watching the 1H demand zone that printed today. If price corrects down to this zone overnight I will be looking for long opportunities towards $1,746 tomorrow.