*disclaimer: Not financial advice. This is my personal trade plan only. I am not qualified or licensed to advise anyone on their specific positions or trades, I am sharing my personal opinions only. Never make financial decisions based on any information on this site or any associated platforms. Always consult a professional for investment related advice and do your due diligence*
Good afternoon! The action slowed down today following Powell’s speech, resulting in an overall dull trading session. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the chop continue tomorrow as markets look ahead to Thursday morning’s CPI data. Regardless of how exciting or boring tomorrow’s action is, price remains at a key area. Let’s get into the details…
HTF Context:
- High timeframe context… still bearish.
Mid Term Outlook:
- No changes to the mid-term view. Today’s action had essentially no effect on this count. Regardless of whether or not yesterday’s high holds, I am still watching for a significant reversal from this area to begin the next wave lower.
What happened today?
- The overnight action was mostly chop until Powell brought some volatility into the mix with his pre-market speech. Notice, price was held up by demand. After some whipsaw a slow & choppy grind upwards began and continued until the close, right at the 0.618fib + 15m supply.
What does today’s action tell us?
- Today’s action didn’t give out many answers. The demand zones discussed yesterday held (point bulls), but the move up was corrective in structure and closed in 15m supply (point bears). With price stuck between these zones it becomes difficult to draw any strong conclusions and remains a test of patience… However, we still do have some areas of interest.
Today’s session closed in 15m supply, my first area of interest. If price can form a reversal structure from here (KPLs at 3922/11,217) I will look be looking for a short entry. If price fails to reverse from this zone, I expect this choppy grind to continue through yesterday’s high and for $ES to test 90m supply (where again I will be watching for a reversal).
Remember, the broader context and trend are still bearish. While I may participate in scalps to the upside if the opportunity presents itself, my main focus will be on finding an entry on the downside reversal if/when that occurs.
Oil Futures:
- Oil formed a reversal structure down from $81.50 leaving 4H supply behind. This supply zone was tagged with a new 10m SZ forming right at the 0.618-0.786 golden zone, which was rejected into the close. I will be watching for a micro 5th wave down to complete the LTF impulse… if this occurs I will look for shorts on a corrective retrace to 20m supply.