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Daily Recap:
Good afternoon!
I began today with an intraday focus on $NQ, while waiting for the mid-term triangle vs flat answer to be made clear.
The reaction to the 430 area was set to be key to how the day unfolded – either a reversal to seek 552, or a bearish takeover.
Buyers stepped in after sweeping this liquidity, forming a 1m reversal structure. This was followed by a higher low and 1-2 strat combo on the 1m to trigger my long entry. Over the next hour, price ran to the target of 552.
Overall, a very ‘by the book’ intraday trade.
But notice what happened throughout the rest of the day….
After reaching the morning target, bulls maintained control, accelerating higher.
With bulls not conceding control, I am still holding runners from the intraday long, which now act as a FREE SWING position, which I will manage on higher timeframes.
This is exactly why runners are so important to me – so that I can stay in moves that continue in my favor and EXCEED my expectations.
With bulls maintaining control today, the mid-term triangles remain the primary counts.
However, today’s strength brings $ES just shy of ATH… This begs the question, are the triangles already complete?
HTF Context:
Still tracking these 1D ranges as w((4))s… $ES is working on another breakout attempt, with $NQ on the cusp.
So, will bulls sustain this one and send us into w((5))? Or, will price fall back into the range once again prolong these rather annoying w((4))s?
Mid Term Situation:
With $ES nearly to ATH, there’s a very realistic possibility that the (E)-waves are already complete.
This would be confirmed once $ES clears ATH, which is only a few points away.
If $ES pulls back before reaching ATH, we could still be in the (E)-wave of the triangle (shown in gray)… But with such little room to the highs, I find this rather unlikely.
With the indices again on the verge of a breakout, the key will be for price to find acceptance at/above last week’s highs and avoid another sweep/failure.
Bear Alts:
If bulls FAIL to sustain the momentum through last week’s highs, allowing a reversal structure back into the range, then the bear counts come back into play.
– On $ES, the running flat would return, with 6363 as the objective.
– On $NQ, a WXY with 22,775 back on the menu.
These only come into play if buyers fail at the prior highs and a significant bearish reversal structure forms.
If this is going to occur, I would expect tomorrow morning’s payroll data to be the catalyst.
Individual Stocks:
$HIMS kept up the strength today, now with a 1D reversal structure. I’ll be looking for a higher low to form next week, followed by the hunting leg.
Oil remains on watch… I’m looking for a higher low to form to form the hunt leg. Triggers will be actionable for me within the next leg.
If no higher-low forms, this setup will move off my radar.