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Recap:
Hello everyone!
Last week began with a gap down to disrupt/pause the immediate bullish uptrend. This resulted in a few days of sideways action before a very quick sweep and reversal at the week’s low on Thursday. $ES finally managed to get above the prior week’s high on Friday, closing just above it… This brings expansion into the discussion for the upcoming week.
Notice the reaction on Thursday, when $ES swept the week’s low… The FIRST 15m candle that swept the low flipped from down to up, valid as an FCR. This one is worth a study!
While $ES spent most of the week in range, $NQ was much stronger, finding moments of expansion even while $ES was ‘stuck’.
In situations with this type of divergence, I prioritize the leader… Meaning, with bullish setups I will primarily focus on $NQ (the stronger index) and with bearish setups I will look to $ES (the weaker index). This was the case last week, and will continue for as long as this divergence persists.
HTF Context:
Price has been nearly vertical since the reversal from demand earlier this month, and now are well above the prior ATHs. This means we have EXPANSION CONTEXT on the high timeframes.
When in expansion, my focus is overwhelmingly in the direction of said expansion. This does not mean that there won’t be any pullbacks, or even some short opportunities on the low timeframes… But I am NOT looking for any swing shorts until there is a significant break in bullish control. HTF control is up and I will most certainly not fight it!
On the 1D, there is demand below on the prior ATHs… These are highly attractive zones.
While it may not be immediate, I expect an eventual retrace to these zones… If/when that happens these will be major areas of interest (AOIs) for me.
Short Term Focus:
In the meantime, active control is UP!
Both indices closed at the week’s high, with demand waiting below (around 7174 and 27,300). I will be watching these zones, if tested, for a bullish reaction.
Both indices are at ATH and control is up. I will be looking higher as long as trend stays up/demand continues to hold. Trying to time a top at ATHs is a fool’s errand… My approach here is “ride the bull control until it breaks”.
If this 1-2H control is broken, my attention will quickly shift back towards last week’s lows… Notice, the 1D demand mentioned earlier is waiting down there.
Be aware that a strong open would add more demand below (right on the current level) and further support bullish continuation. This zone would become an additional AOI.
In summary… my approach to start the week is:
– Bullish focus until proven otherwise.
– Watching for long opportunities on corrective pullbacks to demand
– Riding the 1-2H bullish control until it’s broken
– Once broken, looking to the liquidity and 1D demand below last week’s lows
Open Swings:
$NVDA is nearly at ATH, the main target on this multi-week swing. There, I will trim and leave the rest to ride with 1D trend into (hopefully) expansion above the highs.
$HIMS had a great move on Friday. I’ve taken my trim already (admittedly a tad early) and will continue to ride with 1H trend.
Notice the approach here… I’m letting winners keep winning while still raising stops up with trend. This preserves my upside potential while still securing profits along the way.
Next On Watch:
I am tracking a corrective retrace on $ASTS, into 1W demand. A bullish reaction after sweeping the March low will have me looking back to ATHs.
Gold has slowed down over the past few weeks, forming a range.
There is liquidity and demand below at 4580, I will be watching for a bullish reaction there to resume the bounce towards 5000.
The rest of the Swing Watchlist is unchanged. Waiting for areas of interest to be reached.